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Apr 3, World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund) International Monetary Fund| April iii WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GROWTH RESUMING, DANGERS REMAIN iv .. porated into the electronic editions available from the IMF eLibrary in Italy and Spain led to a sharp increase in sover-.
Table of contents



Equity prices in major developed markets declined by about 15 per cent in the third quarter. Global equity markets underwent synchronized and massive sell-offs in August and early September. Prices in commodity, currency and bonds markets showed large fluctuations. Japan has already been mired in a new recession since the end of Yet, considerable uncertainties remain.

The prospects for continued global economic recovery are at risk. Without an accord, the Government would enter into a serious impasse. The world economy continues to recover from the globa l economic crisis, but the pace remains uneven across countries. The prices of sugar, oil and fats, and cereals increased strongly. The depreciating dollar has compounded upward pressures on commodity prices. Weaknesses in major developed economies continue to drag the global recovery and pose risks for world economic stability in the coming years.

Portfolio investment inflows have been particularly strong. These are particularly alarming in the United States and Japan. Growth of global output is decelerating, however. Recent data has also shown a waning of the recovery in the real economy. After contracting by 2.

World Economic Outlook

However, the recovery continues to be uneven, weak and fragile. It is uneven because not all economies are showing the same strength. Growth in developed economies is forecast to average 1. The recovery is stronger in the economies in transition, with projected growth of 3. The world economy started on a positive note, with further signs of continued recovery. Most economies showed positive gross domestic product GDP growth in the last quarter of The recovery remains uneven and fragile, however.

The recovery, led by the Asian countries, remains uneven across the regions, and conditions for sustained growth remain fragile. There are clear indications that recovery is on its way and global output may increase by 2. Recovery is still very fragile, however.

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A key risk is a premature withdrawal of the stimulus measures in major economies, which presently is a key factor driving the incipient recovery. After a sharp and synchronized global downturn in and most of , the world economy is showing signs of improvement. According to preliminary UN estimates, world gross product WGP is estimated to register a decline of 2. Yet, much of the rebound is still very fragile, making prospects of a sustained recovery still highly uncertain. Unemployment continues to rise worldwide.

Global issues

Widespread hunger is looming in East Africa. Global trade activity could recede again as final consumer demand remains sluggish. Fiscal stimulus measures have been a major factor for the stabilization or expansion of aggregate demand across the globe, especially in a number of large developing countries. A major food crisis is imminent in East Africa. The world economy continues to show signs of an incipient recovery.

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The most notable growth performer is China. On the back of fiscal. Also other. Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China, have rebounded strongly in the second quarter of South Asian coun-. Among the developed countries,. GDP growth in some of the largest economies including France, Germany, and Japan inched towards positive territory in the. Several economies, mostly in Asia, have rebounded in the second quarter of , but many other economies remain mired in recession The economic crisis has triggered a prodigious global trade shock, equivalent to about 4 per cent of world output.

Countries with a strong concentration of exports in the energy sector have proved to be the most vulnerable to such shocks, followed by manufacturing and mineral exporters After a sharp synchronized global downturn in late and early , the world economy has shown signs of stabilization.


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Financial markets worldwide have. Despite the most recent improvement in global financial markets, credit conditions remain tight in major developed economies. Most financial institutions are still in the stage of deleveraging and consolidating and cleansing of their balance-sheets. In many countries, the recovery of domestic demand remains tentative at best and is far from autonomous, being highly dependent on policy support.

Employee Engagement. Human Capital Analytics. Labor Markets. Strategic Human Resources. Talent Management. Global Executive Coaching Defining and Measuring Inclusion. Our Experts. Rebecca L. Box , Washington, DC , U. Data Construction and Sources Appendix 3.

Global Economic Outlook

Data Description Appendix 4. Description of the Vector Autoregression Model Appendix 4. Advanced Economies by Subgroup Table C. European Union Table D. The U. Household Debt Restructuring in Iceland Box 4. Commodity Intensity in Exports Table 4. Summary of World Output Table A2. Summary of Inflation Table A6. Summary of Financial Indicators Table B6. Global Indicators 3 Figure 1. Recent Financial Market Developments 4 Figure 1.


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Emerging Market Conditions 6 Figure 1. Credit Market Conditions 7 Figure 1. Euro Area Spillovers 8 Figure 1. Monetary and Fiscal Policies 9 Figure 1. Balance Sheets and Saving Rates 11 Figure 1. Global Inflation 12 Figure 1. Emerging Market Economies 13 Figure 1. Global Imbalances 14 Figure 1. Risks to the Global Outlook 15 Figure 1. Recession and Deflation Risks 16 Figure 1.

Overheating Indicators for the G20 Economies 24 Figure 1. Commodity Prices and the Global Economy 27 Figure 1. Europe: Back in Recession 52 Figure 2. Asia: Growth Is Moderating 60 Figure 2. Regional Vulnerabilities 80 Figure 2. Economic Activity during Housing Busts 94 Figure 3. Housing Wealth and Household Consumption 95 Figure 3. Household Debt during Housing Busts 96 Figure 3. Household Consumption 97 Figure 3. Housing Market, —11 Figure 3. Government Debt in the Scandinavian Countries, —95 Figure 4.

World Commodity Prices, — Figure 4. Assumptions and Conventions A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through early April The following conventions are used throughout the World Economic Outlook:. As in the September World Economic Outlook, fiscal and external debt data for Libya are excluded for and later due to the uncertain political situation.

Data for the Syrian Arab Republic are excluded for and later due to the uncertain political situation. Projections for and onward pertain to the current Sudan. When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

Composite data are provided for various groups of countries organized according to economic characteris- tics or region. Unless otherwise noted, country group composites represent calculations based on 90 percent or more of the weighted group data. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorse- ment or acceptance of such boundaries. Accompanying the publication on the IMF website is a larger compilation of data from the WEO database than is included in the report itself, including files containing the series most frequently requested by readers.

These files may be downloaded for use in a variety of software packages. The historical data and projections are based on the information gathered by the IMF country desk officers in the context of their missions to IMF member countries and through their ongoing analysis of the evolving situation in each country. Historical data are updated on a continual basis as more informa- tion becomes available, and structural breaks in data are often adjusted to produce smooth series with the use of splicing and other techniques.

IMF staff estimates continue to serve as proxies for historical series when complete information is unavailable. When errors are discovered, there is a concerted effort to correct them as appropriate and feasible. Corrections and revisions made after publication are incor- porated into the electronic editions available from the IMF eLibrary www. All substantive changes are listed in detail in the online tables of contents.

Washington, DC , U. Fax: Online Forum: www. The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehen- sive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries.

Terrones, and Petia Topalova. Skeeter Mathurin and Claire Bea were responsible for word processing. Linda Griffin Kean of the External Relations Department edited the manu- script and coordinated the production of the publication, with assistance from Lucy Scott Morales. The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on March 30, However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.

Bank deleveraging is affecting primarily Europe. Market worries about fiscal sustainability While such deleveraging does not necessarily imply in Italy and Spain led to a sharp increase in sover- lower credit to the private sector, the evidence eign yields. Our best estimates are that it may subtract those banks would be able to convince investors to another 1 percentage point from euro area growth roll over their loans.

Worried about funding, banks this year. Confidence decreased, and activity These effects are reflected in our forecasts. We slumped. The adoption of a fiscal compact showed developments.

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Low advanced economy growth has the commitment of EU members to dealing with meant lower export growth. And financial uncer- their deficits and debt. Most important, the provi- tainty, together with sharp shifts in risk appetite, sion of liquidity by the European Central Bank has led to volatile capital flows. For the most part, ECB removed short-term bank rollover risk, however, emerging economies have enough policy which in turn decreased pressure on sovereign room to maintain solid growth.

As is typically the bonds.